What May U.S. Supply Chain Managers Expect From Emerging Markets?

IHS Markit says the global economy will see a rebound in growth for first time since 2014,” with emerging markets still playing a major role.

“Emerging markets have really struggled in the past few years,” says Nariman Behravesh. “But, a growing global economy will mean that these markets can finally take a breath.” Economic fundamentals in most emerging markets have improved in the past couple of years and, with the exception of China, overall debt ratios are mostly down.

Commodity prices are rising and both consumer and business sentiment have improved. This means that these economies will be able to enjoy the fruits of a more upbeat global outlook, Behravesh adds.

At the same time, however, The International Monetary Fund is voicing doubt about the resilience of several emerging markets, noting Latin American states Brazil and Argentina, as well as post-coup attempt Turkey (which saw a big fall in tourist revenues) – will be weaker in 2017.

Many emerging market currencies have been hit – notably the Mexican Peso and the Turkish Lira, while in commodity exporters, such as Russia, currencies have firmed in line with rising oil process, following the OPEC production cut agreed towards the end of last year.

Meanwhile, the IMF says advanced economies are now set to grow at 1.9% this year and 2% next year – 0.1% and 0.2% respectively higher than the October forecast.

China is forecast to grow at 6.5% this year – up 0.3% in October’s forecast…a point both IHS and IMF economists can agree on.

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