National Retail Federation issues promising forecast

Retail sales growth in 2012 will still grow at a rate faster than many other industries, said industry experts.

Although the outlook is slightly dampened by continued unemployment, retailers are optimistic.

This year, retail industry sales will rise 3.4 percent to $2.53 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation – slightly lower than the pace of 2011, in which sales grew 4.7 percent. Many economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will rise approximately 2.1 to 2.4 percent.

“Over the last 18 months, retailers have been on the forefront of the economic recovery – creating jobs, encouraging consumer spending, and investing in America,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy. Retailers have played a key role in driving growth, but to continue this momentum we need Washington to act on proposals that will spur job creation and unleash the power of the private sector.”

Shay announced NRF’s forecast to 24,000 retailers and their partners at NRF’s 101st Annual Convention and Expo on January 16th in New York.

During his remarks, Shay discussed how continued growth in the retail industry will result in additional jobs, greater innovation and increased consumer value. But he will warn that the private sector can’t do it alone and Washington must take steps to support growth, including reforming our corporate tax system to enhance U.S. business’ competitiveness, enacting sales tax fairness to level the playing field between brick-and-mortar and online retailers, and reforming our visa system so more foreign travelers can come to the U.S. to spend money and help spur growth. Shay and NRF’s Chairman – Chairman, President and CEO of Macy’s, Inc., Terry Lundgren – outlined the industry’s priorities in a letter to President Obama last week.

Though retailers ended last year on a strong note with holiday sales rising 4.1 percent over 2010, many factors will continue to influence the expected slowdown in consumer spending, but none remain more cumbersome than the stalled unemployment rate and lack of newly-created jobs.

Other analysts have made similar observations:

“Better job prospects, lower gasoline prices, and stock market gains are helping to improve consumers’ moods and confidence in the recovery,” said IHS Global Insight US Economist Paul Edelstein. “While we cannot say that consumers are “optimistic”, they appear much less pessimistic compared to last summer when news on the Eurozone debt crisis turned particularly ugly and the debt-ceiling debate was fought.”

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