Global trade remains on an upward trajectory despite political posturing, say analysts for Kuehne + Nagel Group
According to the “gKNi World Trade Indicator,” powered by LogIndex – the Group's data company – this trend is expected to continue. The highest rate of increase is predicted for China.
The gKNi World Trade Indicator registered 140.7 points at the end of July, 0.6% higher compared to the previous month and 10.2% higher than in July 2017.
The gKNI World Trade Indicator summarizes LogIndex's seasonally adjusted export and import estimates of the most relevant trade partners, which account for over 75% of global GDP.
North America is running at full speed. On the other hand, Europe and emerging markets are benefiting from a stronger U.S. dollar.Nevertheless, Asia is losing momentum in August.
“After two negative monthly changes, global trade has accelerated again in July, according to the gKNi World Trade Indicator,” says João Monteiro, Managing, Director at LogIndex AG and Head New Business Kuehne + Nagel Group.
“Despite trade disputes, there are still no signs of a major setback based on our Trade Nowcasting,” he adds. “However, the risks to the forecast lie on the downside. In addition, World trade in general will cool off slightly again in August.”
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Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor specializing in international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He is based in San Francisco, where he provides a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. He may be reached at his downtown office: [email protected].
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