My Year as a Corporate Cassandra

This is an excerpt of the original article. It was written for the May-June 2015 edition of Supply Chain Management Review. The full article is available to current subscribers.

May-June 2015

As supply chain managers we are challenged year in and year out to figure out new, innovative ways to improve our operations. We have to translate educated guesses about what’s next into new investments in our processes. Such may be the case with robotics, 3D printing and additive manufacturing, and investments in new mobile technologies. However, successful planning, including planning for risk, resiliency, and flexibility, can help prepare you for whatever is next.

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Cassandra suffered from a special curse: She was the Greek prophetess that no one believed—sometimes to his or her detriment. The same can be true for demand forecasters and the sales and operations planning (S&OP) team when they are planning for, or living through, a downturn that no one else sees coming or believes is possible. As the steadfast harbingers of bad news, their mettle will be tested as pressures are brought to change their forecasts. In order to survive, it’s important for them to remember that they are indeed partners in setting and helping a company meet its corporate financial objectives.*

The brunt of these pressures largely falls upon the demand forecasting organization because demand forecasts drive supply plans. When, like Cassandra, the forecast is for a significant downward change in business, sales and marketing personnel will deny it could happen; finance will panic about operating margins, and executives will have doubts. I know this because I experienced a tough year during my five-year tenure managing the forecasting organization for the field service division of a Fortune 500 computer manufacturer. While assuming the role of Corporate Cassandra was stressful, it was both my best and worst year in forecasting because it was an important developmental year.

This column gives an account of a period that began with the preliminary revenue forecast for the following year’s budgeting process. I use it to discuss lessons learned should forecasters and their S&OP partners experience a similar year that could involve surviving an awkward, unsettling, and politicized environment.

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