Climate Change Bringing More Rain Will Complicate Supply Chains

The nation’s supply chain managers U.S. businesses in many regions should start preparing now for the increased, extreme rainfall that a changing climate will almost certainly deliver.

That's the advice FM Global, one of the world's largest commercial property insurers, offered in its new white paper published today.

“Businesses must recognize that climate change is happening and it will generally get warmer,” cautions Dr. Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in the white paper, titled Coping with Extremes: The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation and Flooding in the United States and How Businesses Can Prepare Now.

Trenberth is one of four leading atmospheric scientists consulted for the paper.

In general, wet areas of the country will likely become wetter and dry areas drier. Of particular concern, the paper states, are changes that are severe in the extremes: “Extreme events have the greatest potential to produce natural catastrophes that affect businesses, jobs and economies on a regional or global scale.”

The paper introduced several new climate-related concepts, including:

Geographic variability: “Certain regions of the United States are expected to be prone to more intense precipitation events and a potentially increased risk of flooding,” the white paper states. “Others are prone to less precipitation, prolonged droughts and a potentially increased risk of wildfires. Since these anticipated changes are not uniformly distributed geographically, it is recommended that businesses and property owners prepare for locally intense precipitation or drought considerations, depending on their location.”

Bigger rainfall, but maybe not more overall: Although much of the country has gotten wetter in recent decades, long-term precipitation averages will not necessarily change significantly. Rather, rain may be less frequent but more intense.

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