NextGen Supply Chain Interview: Jeff Burnstein

This month we spoke with Jeff Burnstein, president of the Association for Advancing Automation (A3), the parent group of the Robotic Industries Association (RIA), AIA – Advancing Vision + Imaging, and the Motion Control and Motors Association (MCMA). Burnstein joined RIA in 1983. He is a frequent commentator in the media as well as to Congress on the impact of automation on jobs and the future of automation beyond the factory floor.

NextGen: What is the state of robots today?

Burnstein: Overall, robots are strong and getting stronger. And there are several different places to look to gauge where robots are headed.

The most recent one was the recent Automate show in Chicago. More than 20,000 people, or 25% more than the previous show in 2017, attended. They came to see advancements in robotics, vision, motion and advanced automation technologies. We had more than 500 exhibitors from around the world. And they had plenty new to talk about.

We see a strong upward trajectory from here too. For the past few years, Automate has been co-located with MHI's ProMat show. Last month's show will be the last of those. Starting with the next show in 2021, Automate will be a stand-alone in Detroit, May 17-20. This move makes it clear how strong the market is for industrial robots going forward.

Another gauge of strength is robotic sales globally. They are very strong. The International Federation of Robotics, known as the IFR, is calling for 14% annual growth in robot sales through 2021. There are few other industries that have such high expectations.

NextGen: That is impressive. What countries are leading the way globally?

Burnstein: China continues to be both the largest installed base of robots in the world and the fastest growing. Other leading countries are Japan, Korea and Germany. Those four account for 80% of all robot orders globally. Vietnam is another country beginning to rapidly adopt the technology. The U.S. is expected to continue double digit growth annually, but expect some dips along the way. Long term, robotics has a huge growth potential globally.

NextGen: Where is growth coming from in North America?

Burnstein: Right now, the key here is non-automotive robots. Last year, sales were up 17% over 2017. And those numbers, almost 14,300, are just a thousand short of automotive robot sales. That's the closest those two have ever been in terms of numbers.

Now, I've got to point out that automotive sales were down last year as is typical when there are few new model introductions. And even at these levels, automotive robot sales are triple what they were in 2010.

NextGen: What's driving the growth in nonautomotive robots?

Burnstein: There are several forces at work here.

One is the general drive to automation to be more competitive. A second is e-commerce. That's driving applications in the warehouse and logistics. Robots will play an increasing role there, especially mobile robots. Collaborative robots, those that work side-by-side with people, are growing rapidly too. These will be big from taking inventory in grocery stores to picking orders in the DC. And they will be in high demand as the labor situation becomes more acute over time.

Don't look for any let up in that crisis.

NextGen: Where do we stand in the use of collaborative robots?

Burnstein: We are in the very early stages. The IFR says only 3% of total robot sales are collaborative. But the general expectation is for 35% annual growth through at least 2021. However, some companies think that growth could be as high as 60%.

NextGen: What do you see for the use of robots in the next three to five years?

Burnstein: The future is people and robots working together. Robots will not be taking people's jobs. Instead, they will supplement people.

Beyond that, you are going to see robots in many more companies than today. Look for huge growth in small and medium companies. They are coming to realize that robots are not high risk and can help them very quickly.

By the way, don't look for robots in the home much beyond vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers in the next few years. It's just not going to happen in the next five years.

NextGen: Do you see robots teaming up with other NextGen technologies?

Burnstein: Two key areas to watch here are vision and dexterity.

On the machine vision side, robots will be able to see much more clearly. As to dexterity, robots will be able to grasp items they can't or have troubles grasping today.

Both will be tied into artificial intelligence and machine learning. These will allow robots to learn on their own without being programmed. Better yet, I fully expect that learning to be shared across a fleet of robots using cloud communications. That will continuously upgrade the capabilities of robots if not in real time, in near real time. We are still in the early stages in North America not just of robot use, but what robots can do in both friendly and unfriendly industrial environments. It's a great place to be in.

Gary Forger is special projects editor for Supply Chain Management Review. He can be reached at [email protected].

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