Global Economic Outlook Subject to Change with Trump Presidency

This is an excerpt of the original article. It was written for the December 2016 edition of Supply Chain Management Review. The full article is available to current subscribers.

December 2016

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Economists at IHS Global Insights contend that the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president has the potential of upsetting the established global order and changing the economic outlook.

“If protectionist policies are pursued, growth in global trade and real GDP will likely be slower and inflation will probably be higher—a recipe for stagflation,” contends IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “If more pragmatic and pro-growth policies are pursued, then economic growth, inflation and interest rates will all be higher—an outcome that will benefit most but not all economies.”

IHS Global Insight believes the latter scenario is more likely than the former. In the United States, there will be heightened expectations of more growth, inflation and hikes in interest rates—and a stronger dollar.

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