•   Exclusive

Short lifecycle (SLC) forecasting for “muddling through” uncertainties

SLC products—such as those in retail, fashion-oriented and high-tech industries. Try them, they work. Will they yield 100% accuracy? Of course not. Will they improve your forecast accuracy? I believe so.

Subscriber: Log Out

Sorry, but your login has failed. Please recheck your login information and resubmit. If your subscription has expired, renew here.

This is an excerpt of the original article. It was written for the November 2021 edition of Supply Chain Management Review. The full article is available to current subscribers.

November 2021

This is the last regular issue of Supply Chain Management Review for 2021. Normally this time of year, I look forward to what’s in front of us. That’s turned out to be a fool’s errand over the last year and a half. So, instead, I looked back to see what I wrote this time last year. My column was titled “COVID hasn’t stopped supply chain progress.”
Browse this issue archive.
Already a subscriber? Access full edition now.

Need Help?
Contact customer service
847-559-7581   More options
Not a subscriber? Start your magazine subscription.

The pandemic has upended virtually every supply chain process, from procurement to final-mile delivery, but perhaps none so much as planning and forecasting. I suspect managers now realize that when the COVID-19 virus started spreading and lockdowns were instituted, customer demand for all their products changed drastically. Conceptually, this rendered all products as newly introduced products, or mature products introduced into new markets. Historical demand was often useless, as demand varied during multiple phases in virus contraction and ensuing lockdowns. All product demands looked different, especially country to country.

What’s a demand planner to do? Muddle through the uncertainty.

In recent months, The Wall Street Journal has published two articles that illustrate the difficulties of forecasting during uncertainty. One detailed the plight of Driscoll’s, a distributor of strawberries, as well as producers of other perishable food products who have to provide a forecast to farmers in advance of the planting season. Fourteen months into the pandemic, Driscoll’s Mr. Soren Bjorn said that he “considers the models that once guided him inadequate for gauging how consumers or prices will behave once the pandemic subsides.”

Meanwhile, AB InBev, one of the world’s largest brewers, said that its data-scientist team had to pivot from making sales forecasts to focusing on “projecting where and when COVID-19 restrictions would ease or tighten around the world,” as well as tracking “hospital rates, mobility data, Google trends, and other [casual] data.” The brewer had resorted to using publicly available Australian data to help project EU sales, despite the fact that it did no business in Australia. Both WSJ articles inform managers on the types of data that might be used.

This complete article is available to subscribers only. Log in now for full access or start your PLUS+ subscription for instant access.

SC
MR

Sorry, but your login has failed. Please recheck your login information and resubmit. If your subscription has expired, renew here.

From the November 2021 edition of Supply Chain Management Review.

November 2021

This is the last regular issue of Supply Chain Management Review for 2021. Normally this time of year, I look forward to what’s in front of us. That’s turned out to be a fool’s errand over the last year and a…
Browse this issue archive.
Access your online digital edition.
Download a PDF file of the November 2021 issue.

Download Article PDF

The pandemic has upended virtually every supply chain process, from procurement to final-mile delivery, but perhaps none so much as planning and forecasting. I suspect managers now realize that when the COVID-19 virus started spreading and lockdowns were instituted, customer demand for all their products changed drastically. Conceptually, this rendered all products as newly introduced products, or mature products introduced into new markets. Historical demand was often useless, as demand varied during multiple phases in virus contraction and ensuing lockdowns. All product demands looked different, especially country to country.

What’s a demand planner to do? Muddle through the uncertainty.

In recent months, The Wall Street Journal has published two articles that illustrate the difficulties of forecasting during uncertainty. One detailed the plight of Driscoll’s, a distributor of strawberries, as well as producers of other perishable food products who have to provide a forecast to farmers in advance of the planting season. Fourteen months into the pandemic, Driscoll’s Mr. Soren Bjorn said that he “considers the models that once guided him inadequate for gauging how consumers or prices will behave once the pandemic subsides.”

Meanwhile, AB InBev, one of the world’s largest brewers, said that its data-scientist team had to pivot from making sales forecasts to focusing on “projecting where and when COVID-19 restrictions would ease or tighten around the world,” as well as tracking “hospital rates, mobility data, Google trends, and other [casual] data.” The brewer had resorted to using publicly available Australian data to help project EU sales, despite the fact that it did no business in Australia. Both WSJ articles inform managers on the types of data that might be used.

SUBSCRIBERS: Click here to download PDF of the full article.

SC
MR

Latest Podcast
Talking Supply Chain: The last-mile tech advantage
Last-mile delivery success depends on many aspects of the supply chain to work effectively together, but none is more important than the…
Listen in

Subscribe

Supply Chain Management Review delivers the best industry content.
Subscribe today and get full access to all of Supply Chain Management Review’s exclusive content, email newsletters, premium resources and in-depth, comprehensive feature articles written by the industry's top experts on the subjects that matter most to supply chain professionals.
×

Search

Search

Sourcing & Procurement

Inventory Management Risk Management Global Trade Ports & Shipping

Business Management

Supply Chain TMS WMS 3PL Government & Regulation Sustainability Finance

Software & Technology

Artificial Intelligence Automation Cloud IoT Robotics Software

The Academy

Executive Education Associations Institutions Universities & Colleges

Resources

Podcasts Webcasts Companies Visionaries White Papers Special Reports Premiums Magazine Archive

Subscribe

SCMR Magazine Newsletters Magazine Archives Customer Service

Press Releases

Press Releases Submit Press Release