Supply chain disruptions can’t be divorced from the other risks facing us today

We live in an age where risks don’t exist in isolation. They overlap, amplify each other, and create consequences that no single industry—or even country—can manage by itself. The latest Kennedys Global Forecast makes this plain: cyberattacks, extreme weather, and geopolitical instability are not separate threats but facets of a single, interwoven polycrisis. Supply chains are at the heart of this storm.

Take marine logistics. The report names cyberattacks as the most immediate danger. Ports, shipping companies, and freight management systems are increasingly being targeted by hackers. A single breach can bring vital supply routes to a complete standstill, leaving manufacturers without parts and supermarkets without stock. But, cyber threats are only one piece of the puzzle: extreme weather and political tensions press in from other directions. The Panama Canal drought has already cut shipping capacity, forcing vessels to take longer, costlier routes. Geopolitical tensions are doing the same. The Red Sea, once a critical artery of global trade, has become a high-risk zone. Some ships now travel around Africa instead. That means thousands of miles of extra sailing, pushing up costs and delaying deliveries. If a major cyberattack were to hit a key port in the middle of such turmoil, the disruption would spiral beyond control.

It is tempting to treat these issues as separate problems, to believe that fixing one will ease the strain. But this is wishful thinking. In a polycrisis, the old way of managing risk—dealing with each threat in isolation—doesn’t work. Climate disasters force populations to migrate, which increases political instability, which can cause economic volatility or outright conflict, weakening governments, disrupting supply chains, and making regions more prone to cybercrime … These forces reinforce each other, creating knock-on effects that traditional risk models struggle to anticipate. Insurers, businesses, and policymakers alike must face this new reality.

The good news is that, more and more, they are. The insurance industry, long seen as a safety net there to pick up the pieces when disaster strikes, is stepping up and becoming a more complete version of itself. Aware that we cannot just cover the losses—that we must help businesses and communities anticipate and mitigate risks before they escalate—we’re investing in prevention.

Technology, from Earth observation to sophisticated cybersecurity tools, is one of the most powerful ways to do this. Take the former. Satellite imagery combined with AI-driven analytics allows insurers to track supply chain vulnerabilities in real time. We can monitor port congestion and predict extreme weather events before they hit. Already, this technology is helping shipping companies assess rerouting costs and political risks. In the near future, we’ll be able to go further. Businesses will receive live insights into the precise risks their supply chains face. That will allow them to act before disaster unfolds.

And action is the key word here. The climate crisis is worsening (indeed, the warning from Petra Hielkema, head of Europe’s top insurance regulator, that the continent can’t cope with the rising costs of extreme weather was a stark one). There is serious geopolitical unrest. Cybercrime gets better and better by the day, largely advancing in the dark and out of sight, only making itself known when there’s a breach. If we rely on outdated models, then our supply chains will remain at serious risk. Prevention-based insurance, which uses real-time data to help businesses and individuals protect themselves before disaster strikes, is the only sustainable path forward.

Some argue that prevention-focused insurance is costly, that the technology required is expensive and complex. But the cost of doing nothing is greater. The European Investment Bank estimates that every €1 ($1.13 USD) spent on prevention saves €5 to €7 ($5.63 to $7.98) in recovery costs—the economic case is clear. But there is also a human case that goes beyond ensuring that people enjoy the quality of life that they’re used to enjoying. Advanced, anticipatory risk management also prevents the loss of life. It keeps societies functioning, and functioning confidently, at a time of grave and growing instability.

This shift is not a departure from what insurance has historically been. Rather, it’s a return. The fundamental purpose of insurance isn’t just to compensate for loss. It’s to build resilience. It’s to empower people and the societies they generate by minimizing disruption and minimizing harm. This is about protecting lives, livelihoods, communities, societies, whole countries.

Insurers are, sometimes with reluctance, letting go of those outdated models. They’re adapting. At a time when supply chain disruptions can’t be divorced from the other risks facing us today, those of us charged with protecting those supply chains are looking at the situation holistically, and developing holistic solutions. We’re using the latest technology to help people withstand the shocks that are inevitable in a turbulent world.

About the author

Pierre du Rostu

Pierre du Rostu is CEO of AXA Digital Commercial Platform, which uses technology to anticipate and proactively protect clients from supply chain risk. It is part of AXA, a global insurance provider.

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