Port Tracker report eyes a return to normal for U.S.-bound import volumes

A return to normalcy, as it relates to import levels, is expected in 2022, following a 2021, which ostensibly saw new record United States-bound import numbers on a near monthly basis, according to the most recent edition of the Port Tracker Report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

While a return to something resembling more typical import number growth rates may be in the cards, the report observed that comes with the caveat that import volumes are expected to remain elevated.

What’s more, the report highlighted how some months over the course of 2021 saw annual import growth rates up to 65%, which was driven by high consumer demand, retailers taking pronounced steps to increase inventory levels to counter myriad supply chain issues, and low annual comparisons against early 2020, when several stores were closed at the onset of the pandemic.

“Even with the holiday season behind us, supply chain challenges continue,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement. “The huge increases in imports we’ve seen have leveled out, but volume is still at high levels. We hope the system will find a way to catch up, but there is much that remains to be done to clear out port backlogs and increase capacity throughout the supply chain. Amid all of this, the omicron variant is a wild card that could not only impact the supply chain workforce but once again drive more imports if consumers stay home and spend their money on retail goods rather than going out.”

For November, the most recent month for which data is available, import volume came in at 2.11 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 4.5% decline compared to October and a 0.5% annual gain. May 2021 remains the all-time highest-volume month, at 2.33 million TEU).

For the following months, Port Tracker issued the following projections:

-December, at 2.18 million TEU, for a 3.7% annual increase;
-January at 2.23 million TEU, for an 8.6% annual increase;
-February, at 1.95 million TEU, for a 4.2% annual increase; and
-March, at 2.19 million TEU, for a 3.3% annual decrease;
-April, 2.2 million TEU, for a 2.5% annual increase; and
-May, at 2.32 million TEU, for a 0.5% decrease

Should these numbers come to fruition, the report said that total 2021 U.S. retail container imports would come in at 25.9 million TEU, marking a 17.9% annual gain of the current record set in 2020, at 22 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that it is clear that 2021 was a record year for container imports, driven by a response to consumer and industrial demand.

“The logistics supply chain, already stressed going into 2020, withstood the ravages of the pandemic and continued to function despite labor shortages throughout 2021,” observed Hackett. “Economic indicators are giving us a paradoxical view of the direction of the U.S. and global economies. The atmosphere of uncertainty is likely to have an impact on demand going forward. We are already seeing short-term growth rates declining, and we believe trade growth is returning to normal levels reflective of economic factors. We do not expect that double-digit expansion of import volumes will continue in 2022.”

SC
MR