Clicks Will Outpace Bricks in 2016

E-commerce retail sales are expected to continue to grow at double-digit growth rates during 2016-2022, say economists for IHS Global Insight.

In 2016, they expect e-commerce retail sales to represent 8.0% of retail trade (retail sales less restaurants). This is compared to a 6.4% reading for 2014, and a 7.3% estimate for 2015.

Supply chain managers should note that one of the bright spots of the U.S. economy has been consumer spending. Looking ahead, the positives clearly outweigh the negatives on the consumer front for 2016; premised on continuing strength in real disposable income growth, further gains in auto sales, increasing household real estate wealth, elevated levels of consumer confidence, modest consumer price inflation, and a housing market that is gaining traction.

However, cautions IHS, there are still several headwinds, such as mounting student loan debt, weak wage growth, and relatively low labor participation rates.

Analysts forecast real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017, compared to 2.4% in 2015. Real consumer spending growth is likely to increase 3.1% in 2015, 3.0% in 2016, and 3.2% in 2017, outpacing 2014's 2.7% reading.

The IHS Global Insight real disposable income growth forecasts are currently standing at 3.6% for 2015, 3.1% in 2016, and 3.3% in 2017, outpacing 2014's 2.7% reading.

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