Signs of Better Economic Times Ahead?

With economic doldrums lingering in many sectors, the traditional New Year outlooks seem to take on increased significance. We all want things to improve…the overall economy, our industry, our own company, employment levels. But what are the chances that things actually will get better?

I’m a natural optimist. But putting that bias aside, I do see glimmers of sunnier days ahead.

On the technology front, the word from AMR Research is that IT spending will experience a significant bump in 2010.  Specifically, AMR’s most recent survey of spending plans (done in conjunction with ChangeWave Research) shows that 24 percent of executives surveyed planned to increase IT spending in the first quarter. This marks the largest quarter-to-quarter increase in over a year, AMR analyst Bruce Richardson notes.

Manufacturing will see relatively strong growth through 2010, says Jim Haughey, the chief economist with our sister company Reed Construction Data. Factory production is projected to expand by nearly 4 percent, mostly for durable goods. Haughey says the quickest and strongest economic recovery will be seen in the manufacturing states, forest-product states, and certain states in the northeast dominated by technology, non-consumer finance, and intellectual capital industries.

Transportation and logistics spending seems to be on an upward trajectory as well. The latest numbers from the American Trucking Associations, for example, show that truck tonnage increased by 2.7 percent in November. Now that may not sound like a big deal and, no doubt, the number was inflated some by the holiday shopping season. But it is instructive to note that the positive performance comes on the heels of an overall 5.2 percent decline for the preceding 12 months. (For more, see report from Logistics Management at http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/.)

Similarly, figures from IANA (Intermodal Association of North America) show that domestic container volumes continue their relatively strong performance compared to similar periods of a year earlier. (http://www.iana.org/.)

On a purely anecdotal note, my personal economic indicator is the commuting time from home to my office in suburban Boston.  What had been an average 35-minute commute back in the summer increased to 40 minutes around September and then to 45 minutes-plus over the last two months. As I said, it’s anecdotal but considered within the bigger picture could be significant.

Perhaps I’m over-focusing on the glass half full. (Or as the great lyricist Oscar Hammerstein II might say, I’m being a “cockeyed optimist”). But when those slivers of light shine through on these gloomy New England winter days, you’ve got to savor them.