Will Free Trade Survive the Election?

President Barack Obama considers it as one of the keystones of his presidency; the Trans Pacific Partner (TPP) is designed to increase American exports into Asia and bind the TPP signatory countries into a regional economic – national defense association that serves to cement the United States as the economic and security hub of Asia. China is not invited to join, which serves to reinforce America as Asia's hub.

What's not to like?

Everything, if one listens to the rhetoric from the two presidential conventions. Trump hates it, of course; in addition to building a trade-stopping wall between the US and Mexico, he's going to rip up and renegotiate every American trade agreement, saying ‘these trade deals strip our country of its jobs and wealth.”

One wonders if Most Favored Nation status will survive.

Hilary, who supported the TPP as Sect of State, now opposes it and calls it flawed”, but it's worth noting that any treaty signed between 12 countries will not unilaterally favor just one country; there needs to be benefits for all parties involved.

What is the TPP? It’s an ambitious trade pact involving 12 countries on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, ranging from Mexico, Japan, Vietnam, Australia, to Canada. It forms a cornerstone of Obama’s attempt to increase U.S. influence in Asia as a counterweight to China – which is even more important following China's refusal to follow last week's Hague Court ruling against them in their efforts to take over the South China Sea.

The TPP eliminates trade barriers and tariffs on American goods, streamlines standards, and encourages investment between the countries. With the Pacific Rim (excluding China) taking 60+% of America's exports, along with 40% of the world’s economic output, the economic and strategic benefits are obvious.

Then why is TPP such an issue?

Both Trump and Hilary have made it a proxy for the fear that American workers are being left behind, which is partially true. Trade favors consumers and those workers whose products are exported; those shopping at Walmart or any Dollar Store receive the benefits of goods produced in low-wage countries; the issue is those US workers whose jobs disappeared to those low-wage countries.

U.S. Senator Robert Casey agrees, saying: “It's my job as a United States Senator from Pennsylvania to fight for Pennsylvania jobs. In the decade after NAFTA was passed, 525,094 workers were certified as displaced, and a 2014 study found that job displacement due to trade led to real wage losses of 12-17% 1984 through 2002. Thousands of Pennsylvania jobs have been shipped overseas because of unfair trade practices and outsourcing…Washington needs to get serious about leveling the playing field for our businesses and workers”

Casey is correct; a coherent American trade policy is long overdue, but how does one balance America's insatiable hunger for “cheaper” with blue collar jobs? One does not, and Trump / Hilary's sudden aversion to trade does not change that economic impossibility.

Although the TPP is now a proxy for the fear that American workers are being left behind, the role of technology causing entire classes of jobs, both white and blue collar, to disappear, has yet to be discussed. While trade helps America's 310 million consumers, should those workers whose jobs are affected not receive government-sponsored re-training or schooling?

“The TPP raises issues that matter to voters; said Col Timothy Ringgold, (US Army, ret) Now a professor of international trade and CEO of a defense contracting company, Ringgold added “It's all about job security; jobs are not just going overseas, they're being absorbed by technology, and people are scared.”

These are complicated issues with long-term societal and economic ramifications; will we see them discussed during the election campaign?

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