U.S. Exports Brighten Economic Forecast
Revised second quarter economic data reaffirm moderate growth for the reminder of the year, said IHS Global Insight.
Latest NewsThird Party Risk: Too Close for Comfort The State of the DC Voice Market A “trucker’s market” is likely for 2018, says prominent industry analyst Spot market conditions remain in a better than good place, reports DAT NextGen Supply Chain: Time to pay attention to autonomous vehicles More News
Latest ResourceThird Party Risk: Too Close for Comfort You’ve got a handle on many of the potential supply chain "disrupters" that can paralyze your business. But the real risk is embedded in areas you may have overlooked.
Revised second quarter economic data reaffirm moderate growth for the remainder of the year, said IHS Global Insight.
Real GDP growth in the second quarter was revised upward from a lackluster 1.7% annual rate to a moderate 2.5% rate. Most of the increase occurred from an improving international trade situation. The revision showed more exports and fewer imports in the second quarter. Corporate profits in the second quarter increased 5.0% from year-ago levels.
“This improved picture of the economy in the second quarter reinforces our forecast of continued moderate economic growth for the remainder of the year with growth accelerating in 2014,” said Doug Handler, Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight
Threats to this forecast can easily be seen from potentially higher oil prices, political discord in Washington and the impact of higher interest rates on housing and other interest rate-sensitive sectors, added Handler. However, at the beginning of the year, other threats existed from a “fiscal cliff,” a newly imposed government spending sequester, and weakening growth overseas among many of the United States’ key trading partners.
“And yet, economic growth persisted,” noted Handler. “It’s too soon to say how these new threats will pan out, but with a relatively favorable resolution of these issues, the GDP data indicate that this growth can easily occur.”
The second quarter real GDP data show that consumer spending growth remained moderate and sustainable; business investment growth in the quarter was the strongest since early 2012; no discernible inventory overhang exists; and the threat of a drag from a worsening international trade position has been significantly reduced. Pre-tax corporate profits are up 5.0% from year-ago levels.
“The bottom line is that the U.S. economy is currently in a better situation than a year ago to withstand the potential fallout from these threats,” said Handler.
About the AuthorPatrick Burnson, Executive Editor Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at email@example.com.
Subscribe to Supply Chain Management Review Magazine!Subscribe today. Don't Miss Out!
Get in-depth coverage from industry experts with proven techniques for cutting supply chain costs and case studies in supply chain best practices.
Start Your Subscription Today!
View More From this Issue