Parcel Volume Growth Slowed In 2022; 5-Year Growth Forecast Downgraded

The slowdown in China’s economy, as well as U.S. e-commerce returning from its stratospheric heights in 2022 likely played a role in global parcel volumes slowing in 2022. According to data from global shipping and mailing company Pitney Bowes, global parcel volume reached 161 billion in 2022, a 1% increase from 2021.

That equates to 5,102 parcels shipped every second if the year, the company said in its Global Parcel Shipping Index, released this morning.

Pitney Bowes said the index showed China parcels increased just 2% to 111 billion parcels, the slowest growth rate since tracking began. The Index estimates parcel volume will most likely reach 225 billion by 2028, with a 6% CAGR ‘23-’28, a change from 8% forecasted last year.

“China parcel volume had maintained a double-digit growth rate every year from 2013 to 2021. However, in 2022, COVID-related lockdowns caused a sharp slowdown,” Gregg Zegras, executive vice president of global e-commerce at Pitney Bowes, said in a statement. “As the world’s second-largest economy, China is experiencing a frail pace of growth during its COVID recovery. We’re seeing volume slowdown, declining e-commerce sales, and an overall weak economy, projecting a 7% parcel volume CAGR 2023 to 2028.”

Pre-pandemic China parcel volume forecast was 25% CAGR 2018 to 2022 and actual volume growth was lower, at 22% CAGR 2018 to 2022.

Global parcel volume was 64 billion units in 2016, exploring to 161 billion last year. India led with the highest increase at 18% driven by e-commerce expansion, while Italy (4%), China (2%) Australia (2%) and Brazil (2%) also showed growth. However, Sweden and Canada experienced significant declines at –11% and –9% respectively.

While parcel volumes increased, revenue saw a decline in 2022, dropping 1% to $485 billion. Pitney Bowes attributed this to the strong U.S. dollar compared to other currencies. The U.S., Brazil, India and Australia were the only countries to post revenue growth.

The U.S. also led in carrier revenue, posting 7% growth at $198 billion backed by strong $9.30 per-parcel revenue. Canada was the highest per-parcel revenue at $9.80. France was also close at $9.10. China, though, posted per-parcel revenue of just $1.40, allowing the U.S. to generate more revenue.

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