Decline in U.S-bound Ocean Cargo Reported by Panjiva

United States-bound waterborne shipments in March stumbled in March to end the first quarter, according to data issued this week by Panjiva, an online search engine with detailed information on global suppliers and manufacturers.

March shipments at 798,180 trailed February by 12 percent and were down 19 percent annually. For the entire first quarter, shipments were relatively flat annually, rising 0.27 percent to 2,587,988.

Panjiva said that March's sequential decline was atypical in that in previous years shipments have risen from February to March, with a 24 percent gain in 2015, and a 9 percent gain in 2013. 2013 was off 12 percent but annual gains were intact in 2012 and 2011.

It explained that part of the decline can be attributed to a strong February, with an extra day due to the leap year while making it clear that “it is evident from the annual comparison that March's shipment levels were still low.” But it added that April is usually a growth month, with the expectation that shipments should head up in comparison to March, due to March volumes being much lower than what is viewed as normal.

The March import declines reported by Panjiva were consistent with data released by the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB), which saw March imports down 33.3 percent and 34.6 percent, respectively. The ports explained that March's output was impacted by the difficult annual comparisons, as March 2015 was up more than percent annually, due to the strong recovery in volume from labor-related cargo backlogs earlier in 2015. They also cited the Lunar New Year in Asia, which typically curtails freight flows as many factories in East Asia are closed during this time for up to two weeks.

In an interview, Panjiva Research Director Annelise McCarthy said that while March was down, it was encouraging that things began well to start the year in January and February.

“That helps to explain a little bit of the March decline although it does not entirely solve the year-over-year drop off,” she said. “It is too soon to see if what happened in March is the beginning of a trend, we will need to see how April shakes out to see if it was a one-time thing for March or an indication of something larger at play.”

With such a low March baseline to work off of, McCarthy said Panjiva was optimistic that April would result show growth.

‘“We have heard a bit of a disconnect from clients in that they are less optimistic about 2016 than they were in 2015,” she said. “A lot of the concern being voiced by economists is also felt by importers and it shows, but from a personal standpoint many felt they will end up shipping more in 2016 than they did in 2015. It is ironic that they feel less optimistic about the economy as a whole but they still feel like import levels will be up.”

And at the same time various economic issues persist, such as low GDP, high inventory levels, a strong U.S. dollar, the Transpacific Trade Agreement, and China's sluggish economy, among others.

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