NRF and Commerce report solid November retail sales

Data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed gains in U.S. retail sales in November.

Commerce reported that November retail sales, at $513.5 billion, were up 0.2% over October's revised $512.4 billion and up 4.2% annually. And total retail sales from September through November were up 4.3% to the same period a year ago.

Retail trade sales saw a 0.8% annual gain, and non-store sales, which includes e-commerce, saw a 10.8% increase.

NRF reported that November retail sales increased 0.7% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from November and were up 5% on an unadjusted basis annually. The organization's data does not include automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

With November in the books, NRF said that total sales for the holiday shopping season, which is comprised of November and December, are on pace to meet its holiday sales forecast of a 4.3%-to-4.8% annual gain, coming in between $717.45 billion and $720.89 billion.

And it added that the retail sales three-month moving average through November is up 4.3% annually, on the heels of October sales improvement, which saw a 0.7% sequential increase and a 5.6% annual gain.

“Consumers have the capacity and confidence to spend this holiday season,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said, citing the influence of stronger employment, improved wages, tax cuts and increased net worth. “This is a good start to the holiday season and consistent with our outlook. Consumer spending remains solid and clearly provides evidence that the economy is healthy as we head into 2019.”

NRF reported annual gains in the following categories:
• Online and other non-store sales were up 12.1% unadjusted year-over-year and up 2.3% seasonally adjusted from October;
• Building materials and garden supplies stores sales were up 3.5% unadjusted year-over-year and down 0.3% seasonally adjusted from October;
• Clothing and accessories stores sales were up 4.1% unadjusted year-over-year and down 0.2% seasonally adjusted from October;
• Health and personal care stores sales were up 3.6% unadjusted year-over-year and up 0.9% from October; and
• General merchandise stores sales were up 4.2% unadjusted year-over-year and up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from October, among other categories

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