PLUS+ Login


To log into your PLUS+ Account, complete and submit the information below.

Not a PLUS+ subscriber already? Become one now.


For assistance with your PLUS+ subscription, contact customer service.

Premium access to exclusive online content,
companion digital editions, magazine issues and
email newsletters. Subscribe Now.



Become a PLUS+ subscriber and you'll get access to all Supply Chain Management Review premium content including:

  • Full Web Access. All feature articles, bonus reports and industry research through scmr.com.

  • 7 Magazine Issues per year of Supply Chain Management Review magazine.

  • Companion Digital Editions. Searchable replicas of each magazine issue. Read them in any web browser. Delivered by email faster than printed issues.

  • Digital Editions Archives. Every article, every chart and every table as it appeared in the magazine for all archive issues back to 2009.

  • Bonus email newsletters. Add convenient weekly and monthly email newsletters to your subscription to keep your finger on the pulse of the industry.

PLUS+ subscriptions start as low as $109/year*. Begin yours now.
That's less than $0.36 per day for access to information that you can use year-round to better manage your entire global supply chain.

For assistance with your PLUS+ subscription, contact customer service.

* Prices higher for subscriptions outside the USA.

You have been logged out of PLUS+

For assistance with your PLUS+ subscription, contact customer service

Need to access our premium PLUS+ Content?
Upgrade your subscription now.

Our records show that you are currently receiving a free subscription to Supply Chain Management Review magazine, or your subscription has expired. To access our premium content, you need to upgrade your subscription to our PLUS+ status.

To upgrade your subscription account, please contact customer service at:

Email: [email protected] Phone: 1-800-598-6067 (1-508-663-1500 x294 outside USA)

Become a PLUS+ subscriber and you'll get access to all Supply Chain Management Review premium content including:

  • Full Web Access. All feature articles, bonus reports and industry research through scmr.com.

  • 7 Magazine Issues per year of Supply Chain Management Review magazine.

  • Companion Digital Editions. Searchable replicas of each magazine issue. Read them in any web browser. Delivered by email faster than printed issues.

  • Digital Editions Archives. Every article, every chart and every table as it appeared in the magazine for all archive issues back to 2010.

  • Bonus email newsletters. Add convenient weekly and monthly email newsletters to your subscription to keep your finger on the pulse of the industry.

PLUS+ subscriptions start as low as $129/year*. Start yours now.
That's less than $0.36 per day for access to information that you can use year-round to better manage your entire global supply chain.

This content is available for PLUS+ subscribers.


Already a PLUS+ subscriber?
To begin or upgrade your subscription, Become a PLUS+ subscriber now.

For assistance with your PLUS+ subscription, contact customer service.

Sorry, but your login to PLUS+ has failed.


Please recheck your login information and resubmit below.



For assistance with your PLUS+ subscription, contact customer service.

Subscribe to our free, weekly email newsletter!


Lessons for planners from the 2016 campaign

Business forecasters and planners can learn from the mistakes of the pollsters in the 2016 presidential election.
By Larry Lapide
May 4, 2017

We have just come off of a presidential election year in which the political pollsters concur that they really missed the boat. Few (at best) picked Donald Trump to win the election. Countless articles have since been written trying to decipher how the profession could have been so wrong. Business forecasters and planners can learn from their mistakes. They understand that fore¬casts and plans are never perfect; thus they would suspect pollsters are being hard on themselves. However, I believe pollsters (as a whole) did not do a good job—and that there are lessons for forecasters in their results.

When an outcome is binary, such as when calling a coin toss, around half of a group would likely be wrong. So if the election was reasonably close, on average around half of the pollsters should have picked the winner. However, President Trump was a long shot—meaning less than 50% should have picked him. The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, both respected pollsters, gave Trump a 15% and 29% chance of winning, respectively. I believe the latter was more accurate, but even if the former was, then around 15% of the pollsters should have predicted Trump the winner. The unbelievably minuscule number of pollsters that did predict him to win lends some credence to the pollsters being biased.

My assessment

During one year of my tenure as a business fore¬caster, I forecasted a substantial change in the annual revenue trend of my division. That was a good year for me in that I forecasted a revenue turning point—from low double-digit annual percentage growth to flat revenues. It was a bad year because the executives, managers and co-workers refused to believe the forecast because the division was coming off of multiple years of revenue growth.*

This complete article is available to subscribers only.
Click on Log In Now at the top of this article for full access.
Or, Start your PLUS+ subscription for instant access.
Download Article PDF

We have just come off of a presidential election year in which the political pollsters concur that they really missed the boat. Few (at best) picked Donald Trump to win the election. Countless articles have since been written trying to decipher how the profession could have been so wrong. Business forecasters and planners can learn from their mistakes. They understand that fore¬casts and plans are never perfect; thus they would suspect pollsters are being hard on themselves. However, I believe pollsters (as a whole) did not do a good job—and that there are lessons for forecasters in their results.

When an outcome is binary, such as when calling a coin toss, around half of a group would likely be wrong. So if the election was reasonably close, on average around half of the pollsters should have picked the winner. However, President Trump was a long shot—meaning less than 50% should have picked him. The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, both respected pollsters, gave Trump a 15% and 29% chance of winning, respectively. I believe the latter was more accurate, but even if the former was, then around 15% of the pollsters should have predicted Trump the winner. The unbelievably minuscule number of pollsters that did predict him to win lends some credence to the pollsters being biased.

My assessment

During one year of my tenure as a business fore¬caster, I forecasted a substantial change in the annual revenue trend of my division. That was a good year for me in that I forecasted a revenue turning point—from low double-digit annual percentage growth to flat revenues. It was a bad year because the executives, managers and co-workers refused to believe the forecast because the division was coming off of multiple years of revenue growth.*

SUBSCRIBERS: Click here to download PDF of the full article.

 

 


About the Author

image
Larry Lapide
Larry is a lecturer at the University of Massachusetts’ Boston Campus and is an MIT Research Affiliate. He welcomes comments on his columns at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Subscribe to Supply Chain Management Review magazine

Subscribe today. Don't miss out!
Get in-depth coverage from industry experts with proven techniques for
cutting supply chain costs and case studies in supply chain best practices.
Start Your Subscription Today!

Recent Entries

Planning took center stage at the Best of the Best conference. But attendees acknowledged recognition of its benefits is far from certain.

Navis, a part of Cargotec Corporation, told supply chain managers charged with keeping abreast of the latest changes in automation. But in a subsequent report released this week, analysts say that some sectors of the industry continue to resist.

The maritime industry and broader ocean supply chain are suffering from major and costly inefficiencies due to ineffective data sharing and poor cross-industry collaboration, according to a new report and industry survey released today by the Business Performance Innovation (BPI) Network in coordination with Navis and XVELA, both part of Cargotec

Robots need to be built, programmed, customized, maintained, serviced and continuously updated. This requires logistics planners, hardware designers, engineers, computer programmers, materials management specialists, and a multitude of other technicians.

The advent of the Industry 4.0 brought with it the next phase in the digitization of the manufacturing sector.

Comments

Post a comment
Commenting is not available in this channel entry.


© Copyright 2017 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc • 111 Speen Street, Ste 200, Framingham, MA 01701 USA