ISM’s December 2012 Semiannual Economic Forecast Posts Positive Numbers

While there were few surprises contained in ISM’s December 2012 Semiannual Economic Forecast, the overall findings suggest growth in the United States will continue in 2013.

According to the nation’s purchasing and supply management executives expectations are for a continuation of the economic recovery that began in mid-2009, as indicated in the monthly “ISM Report On Business.”

The manufacturing sector is optimistic about growth in 2013, with revenues expected to increase in 17 manufacturing industries, and the non-manufacturing sector predicts that 14 of its industries will see higher revenues. Capital expenditures, a major driver in the U.S. economy, are expected to increase by 7.6 percent in the manufacturing sector and by 7 percent in the non-manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing, however, expects that its employment base will grow by less than 1 percent, while non-manufacturing expects employment growth of 1.3 percent.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Business Survey Committee of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The forecast was released today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and by Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“Manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect to see continued growth in 2013,” said Holcomb. “They are optimistic about their overall business prospects for the first half of 2013, and are even more optimistic about the second half of 2013,” said Holcomb.

In an interview with Logistics Management —SCMR’s sister publication—Holcomb also noted that shippers may expect a slight hike in transportation costs next year.

“This rise in expense should keep pace with the overall growth projections in manufacturing and services,” he said.

He also observed that manufacturing experienced five consecutive months of growth from January through May 2012, while four of the last six months from June through November 2012 registered slight contraction (as measured by and reported in the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report On Business).

“But but our forecast for 2013 calls for a resumption of growth in 2013,” said Holcomb. “Respondents expect raw materials pricing pressures in 2013 to be higher than in 2012, and expect their margins will improve slightly.”

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