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Global Economic Outlook Subject to Change with Trump Presidency

The election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president has the potential to upset the established global order and change the economic outlook.
By Patrick Burnson
December 6, 2016

Economists at IHS Global Insights contend that the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president has the potential of upsetting the established global order and changing the economic outlook.

“If protectionist policies are pursued, growth in global trade and real GDP will likely be slower and inflation will probably be higher—a recipe for stagflation,” contends IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “If more pragmatic and pro-growth policies are pursued, then economic growth, inflation and interest rates will all be higher—an outcome that will benefit most but not all economies.”

IHS Global Insight believes the latter scenario is more likely than the former. In the United States, there will be heightened expectations of more growth, inflation and hikes in interest rates—and a stronger dollar.

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Download Article PDF

Economists at IHS Global Insights contend that the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president has the potential of upsetting the established global order and changing the economic outlook.

“If protectionist policies are pursued, growth in global trade and real GDP will likely be slower and inflation will probably be higher—a recipe for stagflation,” contends IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh. “If more pragmatic and pro-growth policies are pursued, then economic growth, inflation and interest rates will all be higher—an outcome that will benefit most but not all economies.”

IHS Global Insight believes the latter scenario is more likely than the former. In the United States, there will be heightened expectations of more growth, inflation and hikes in interest rates—and a stronger dollar.

SUBSCRIBERS: Click here to download PDF of the full article.

About the Author

image
Patrick Burnson
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

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